Opportunities in Unsyncable Markets

Widely divergent economic cycles are playing out across regions, with China seemingly at a trough in terms of industrial and consumer activity, while in the US, industries that benefited from the fiscal stimulus and tight supply chains during Covid appear to be peaking. Desynchronized growth is not just evident regionally, but also within regions when we look at individual sectors. Though we may be seeing the end, at least for now, of synchronized global growth, the resulting volatility creates an investment landscape ripe with alpha opportunities. The key is combining on-the-ground insights into local industries with strong fundamental analysis, with an eye to finding the best-positioned companies and assets both within the current cycle and relative to longer-term (and cycle-agnostic) trends.

The global economic outlook appears brighter than many expected at the beginning of 2023, but signs of deceleration are surfacing along with emerging tail risks, which will influence investing and sentiment in 2024. A resilient consumer, tight labor market, and moderating inflation have bolstered macro conditions in the US despite expectations for a slowdown as the lagged effects of restrictive monetary policy take hold. Europe’s economic outlook looks weaker, with business activity falling to its lowest level since November 2020. China remains dogged by concerns about ongoing weakness in its property sector, though the overall economy appears to be bottoming – and the rebound originally predicted for early 2023 keeps being pushed out.

Asia’s relatively strong economic growth outlook, benign inflationary pressures, and potential policy easing on the horizon paint a positive picture and should provide attractive investment potential in 2024. Our outlook for China is more measured than in previous years, as the market still awaits a consistent post-pandemic macroeconomic and assets recovery. In line with this, we expect 2024 to be a year of stabilizing and modest recovery in response to disappointments in 2023. India is supported by strong economic growth momentum, robust corporate earnings, broad-based recovery in sectors from financials to autos to fast-moving consumer goods, local credit growth, and sound monetary policy. Further, the country is well-placed to benefit from the trend to reshape supply chains.

At present, Europe and the Middle East are in the midst of what could be drawn-out proxy wars, with the potential to heat up. The US and China, the world’s two largest economies, have incurred escalating economic and military tensions. The war in Ukraine is wearing on, and Russia appears to be helping North Korea to improve its nuclear capabilities. With so many black swans flying overhead, we could see an uptick in interest in gold and other safety assets in 2024.